President BidenJoe Biden Biden Hopes for Significant Jobs on Friday Jan.6 Brings Democrats and Cheneys Together – With GOP Almost Absent Balance / Sustainability – Climate, Democratic Emergencies Indivisible MORE and Democrats are counting on a resilient US economy to generate a strong employment increase in December Friday when the Labor Department releases its monthly jobs report.
With COVID-19 cases on the rise and Biden’s approval declining, December’s jobs report could provide a much-needed boost to the president’s attempts to allay concerns about the snags in the recovery economic.
Economists expect the United States to have gained around 420,000 jobs, according to consensus estimates, even after the emergence of the omicron variant in late November. Optimistic analysts are reporting a series of remarkably weak jobless claims, strong private sector data and omicron’s limited presence in the United States through the second half of December.
“High-frequency indicators suggest that demand for labor held up well at the start of the Omicron wave. In addition, the lack of available workers pushed layoffs to new records in mid-December, as evidenced by the drop in initial jobless claims to their lowest level since 1969, ”wrote Lydia Boussour, Chief US Economist. at Oxford Economics, in a preview Wednesday. .
It forecasts a gain of 405,000 jobs in December – a mark below the consensus but nearly double the addition of 210,000 jobs in November.
“There is a risk that the emergence of the Omicron variant at the end of November will push people away from job search and temporarily slow down hiring in high-contact service sectors in December,” Boussour continued, “but we think it might be a bit too early for the December jobs report to grasp some significant downsides of the variant.
Dozens of businesses and schools have reduced face-to-face interactions as cases spiked in the second half of December. Even so, most of those cancellations occurred after the Labor Department conducted the two surveys used to compile the jobs report, which likely reflect little of the omicron shock.
While economists remain concerned about omicron’s immediate damage to the leisure and hospitality sector and the longer-term impact on the economy in general, the labor market appeared to remain strong to begin with. of the thrust.
New weekly claims for unemployment benefits have stood at nearly 200,000 since mid-November, around 20,000 claims below pre-pandemic levels, a sign of some layoffs beyond seasonal patterns. A record 4.5 million Americans left their jobs in November as employers hired 6.7 million workers for 10.6 million job postings.
Private companies also added 807,000 new workers in December, according to payroll processor ADP, nearly double what economists expected.
“807,000 is a large number for private sector jobs, and if you look at the four-week moving average for new [unemployment insurance] Asylum seekers, we haven’t seen those kinds of numbers since 1969, ”said Jane Oates, former deputy secretary of the Department of Labor under the Obama administration, in an interview Wednesday.
“Most people don’t quit a job if they don’t have one, so I’m really optimistic that we’re going to see a significant number,” she said.
A strong jobs report in December could give Biden and the Democrats good news after weeks of political and political setbacks.
Biden’s broad social services and climate bill is on the verge of collapse after Sen. Joe manchinJoe Manchin Biden Hopes for Significant Job Numbers on Friday Top House Democrat Urges Senate to End Filing to Pass Voting Rights Jan. 6 Briahna Joy Gray: Biden to ‘Pay the Bagpiper’ for His Inaction mid-term PLUS (DW.Va.) announced its opposition to the plan shortly before Christmas. While Biden and the Democratic leaders in Congress are optimistic about the possibility of reviving at least part of the package, they have put the bill on hold for the foreseeable future.
Omicron spike also slashed Biden approval ratings as Americans scramble for COVID-19 testing, parents brace for more school closures, and country grapples with another marred winter threats to health.
A solid job gain could help Biden ease some concerns about the strength and pace of the recovery after months of high inflation. Biden and Democrats struggled to sell the benefits of a meteoric recovery in job growth, wages, consumer spending, house prices and stocks to voters, who focused much more on rising prices and labor shortages spilling over into the economy.
High inflation and supply chain grunts have been a mainstay of Republican attacks on Biden within a year of the midterm election. GOP lawmakers have blamed the price hikes and shortages on Biden’s $ 1.9 trillion budget stimulus bill as they attempt to take control of Congress, though economists say the plan American rescue was only one of many causes.
“Nothing scares the hearts of consumers more than thinking they won’t be able to get what they want,” Oates said. “Whether it’s their Rice Krispies, or whether it’s their toilet paper which makes them very nervous. ”
But December’s relief could be fleeting. Many economists fear the United States has yet to see the worst of the impact of omicron, and are unsure how it could affect inflation, U.S. growth, and the global economy. A potential combination of lower consumer demand and increased pressure on supply chains could leave the United States with slower growth and job gains
“The Omicron spread pointed out a truism: The health of the economy ultimately depends on the health of the people. The more people who are sick from COVID, the harder it is to keep the economy going, ”wrote Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, in an analysis Wednesday.
“The spread has been so rapid and is affecting so many people that the number of sick people will be a barrier to growth in the first trimester. The slowdown could be much more pronounced and widespread than what we saw during the Delta wave over the summer, ”she continued.