Wall Street Breakfast: Jobs Day

Employment day

The latest non-farm payroll report for 2021 will be released this morning, with expectations that the US economy created 400,000 jobs in December, up from 210,000 jobs added in November. The numbers – which represent the total number of paid workers in the United States minus agricultural, government, private and nonprofit household employees – come as many worry about the direction of the US recovery in 2022. Despite the fears, the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.1% from 4.2% in November, with an unprecedented number of job openings in the economy.

Bigger picture: The NFP photo should be taken with a grain of salt, given that “December numbers will not yet capture the impact of the booming Omicron variant on employment,” noted Lauren Goodwin, economist at New York Life Investments . In recent months, the market has also seen a big divergence between actual numbers and expectations, like the November jobs report, which showed a 210,000 wage increase despite a forecast of 550,000. All three previous months have not been better, with calls for 450,000 jobs in October (against 531,000 real), 500,000 salaries in September (against 194,000 real) and 750,000 positions in August (against 235,000 real).

There are several factors at play, but what is happening is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is struggling to get data during the pandemic. In fact, the agency has already adjusted its initial estimates of wage bill growth to nearly one million jobs in 2021, which was the highest adjustment on record. Companies whose BLS forecasts its estimates do not respond to surveys on time, which means more assumptions are included in the equation, while seasonal factors, such as the usual back-to-school adjustments, have been upended. by COVID-19.

Go further: Fed policymakers are paying close attention to the data (higher payrolls can help drive more economic growth) and the market narrative begins to take shape shortly after the first numbers are released. As the Fed now focuses more on the other side of its dual mandate – price stability versus maximum sustainable employment – investors will be particularly focused on certain sub-components of the NFP data amid concerns about a spiral. price-wages. Keep an eye out for labor force participation, which reflects people who are working or actively looking for a job, and average hourly earnings which are expected to increase 0.4% in December, or 4.2% year-on-year.

Supreme stakes

The Supreme Court will hear legal challenges today against two of the Biden administration’s COVID-19 vaccine warrants, with decisions likely to follow shortly. The first, which is estimated to cover two-thirds of the private sector, or 100 million workers, would require companies with 100 or more employees to ensure their staff are vaccinated against COVID or are tested weekly for the virus. A separate mandate for healthcare workers, which would require vaccination of workers in facilities that treat federally-funded Medicare and Medicaid patients, is currently blocked in half of the 50 US states.

Instantaneous: While the Supreme Court has already ruled on several cases regarding COVID vaccine warrants (such as health care cases in New York and Maine), this time around, the case focuses on actions by federal agencies. . The key legal question here is not whether the mandate is reasonable or necessary in light of the pandemic, but rather whether Congress has given the Occupational Safety and Health Administration the power to issue such directives under relevant laws. Employers who fail to meet the requirements face penalties of up to $ 13,653 for each reported violation, while OSHA has said it will verify compliance through record keeping. company and some in-person inspections.

The Biden administration believes that OSHA has not only the authority, but also the responsibility to act. Supporting this argument is the agency’s ability to issue emergency workplace rules to protect employees “in grave danger” from “substances or agents deemed toxic or physically harmful. or new dangers ”. Across the courtroom, a coalition of business and religious groups, Republican attorneys general or governors, and national industry associations like the National Retail Federation and the American Trucking Associations, say the warrant is overbroad. OSHA cannot take a measure of “such broad economic and political importance” without specific authorization from Congress, according to the group, which highlighted serious consequences such as labor shortages and job losses. increased costs for employers.

Divided nation: More than half of employees who work in workplaces with 100 or more employees (the size of companies covered by the federal requirement) say that their employer already requires vaccination (36%) or that they want their employer requires it (17%) according to the Kaiser Family Foundation, while four in ten (41%) say they don’t want their employer to require a jab. Meanwhile, 37% of unvaccinated workers say they would rather quit their jobs than comply with a jab or test warrant, while 46% would be tested weekly and 11% say they would get vaccinated. (6% don’t know or refused to answer the survey).

Media Consolidation

The current wave of media consolidation is accelerating as a result of Voxthe merger with Group nine and BuzzFeedThe purchase of Complex. The last chord will see The New York Times (NOW) pick up the sports subscription site athleticism for $ 550 million, with the all-cash transaction scheduled to close in the first quarter. Also, don’t forget Dotdash’s acquisition of the National Media Group of Meredith in October, as well as Axel Springer’s purchase of Politics.

What is happening? “’Less is better’ is a sentiment that rings true for many marketers when it comes to their media plan,” said Kelsey Chickering, senior analyst covering media at Forrester. “Market consolidation allows brands and agencies to work with a single partner who can offer them a diverse menu in terms of audience, content franchises and passion points. In addition to competing better with social platforms for advertising, consolidation allows the audience to visit various sites in a company’s portfolio, while also giving them the opportunity to generate more subscriptions and revenue.

In the case of The temperature, purchasing The Athletic will go a long way towards achieving its long-term subscriber goals. AthleteC’s 1.2 million subscribers will be added to the newspaper’s existing stable of 8.3 million subscribers, bringing it closer to its goal of 10 million paying subscribers by 2025. NOWrevenue growth rate of, it will be dilutive to operating profit for approximately three years (as NOW increases subscriptions and develops its advertising activity), and accretive thereafter.

Declaration: “We launched The Athletic to bring fans closer to the teams, players and leagues they love through deep, immersive journalism and storytelling,” said Alex Mather and Adam Hansmann, who founded the website in 2016. “Today marks an exciting stage for this dream. , realized the hard work of each of our employees. We are proud that The Athletic is part of The Times Company’s family of subscription products. “

Dummy social networks

If the first anniversary of the Jan.6 Capitol attack wasn’t divided enough, disarray is moving online again, just like in January 2021. Partisan politics doesn’t just happen in Congress, but envelopes more in addition to American businesses, as well as the way citizens work, operate and interact on social media. The latest development can be seen with the launch date of TRUTH Social, which has been listed in the Apple App Store with a scheduled launch date of February 21 (the date coincides with Presidents Day).

He said she said: Former President Donald Trump announced the social network in October, which would be merged with SPAC Digital World Acquisition (NASDAQ: DWAC). Just like in October, the latest launch announcement sent DWAC flight actions, with SPAC almost 20% Thursday to close at $ 60. Trump is marketing the platform as an alternative to social media giants Twitter (NYSE: TWTR) and Facebook (NASDAQ: FB), both of which have banned it on the grounds of inciting the U.S. Capitol riot on the 6th. January.

“I created the social and video on demand service TRUTH (TMTG +) to resist the tyranny of Big Tech,” Trump said at the time. “We live in a world where the Taliban have a strong presence on Twitter, but your favorite US president has been silenced. This is unacceptable. The mission of Trump Media & Technology Group is to create a rival to the liberal media consortium and fight against the “Big Tech” companies of Silicon Valley, which have used their one-sided power to silence opposing voices in America. “

Outlook: Other big names are also jumping ship, or at least protecting their followers, citing concerns about free speech and canceling culture. “Just in case the shit on Twitter gets even dumber, I’m here too now. Rejoice!” said star podcaster Joe Rogan, who wrote his first post on Gettr this week. As of November 2021, the Twitter alternative (started by Trump’s assistant Jason Miller) had nearly 3 million total users and nearly 400,000 average daily users. In the last week alone, Gettr has seen half a million new users join Rogan, Dr Robert Malone and the Twitter suspension of Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene.

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